AM EDITORIAL: Impact Of Change In Aircraft Delivery Schedules, Iran War On Airlines, Industry

In recent years, aircraft manufacturers have adjusted aircraft delivery dates scheduled for airline orders due to various reasons, leaving many airlines with far reaching operational and cost implications.

Before the United States-Iran war broke out in March 2026, Avions de Transport Regional (ATR) had secured 50 net orders in 2025 and got 19 new operators but supply chain disruptions limited deliveries to 32 aircraft. There was a backlog of 160 aircraft but for 2026, the company had announced intention to achieve a 20% increase in deliveries.

Airbus delivered 793 commercial aircraft to 91 customers in 2025, recording a 4% increase year-on-year and registered 1000 new gross orders. For 2026, Airbus forecasted 870 aircraft deliveries, below analysts’ expectations. By mid-2025, narrow-body orders had accounted for 88.9% of Airbus backlog (7,660 out of 8,617 aircraft).

Boeing delivered 46 aircraft to customers in the initial months of 2026, more than twice 19 deliveries recorded by Airbus. In January alone, Boeing delivered 38 B737 MAX narrow body aircraft alongside five B787 Dreamliners and it planned to deliver a total of 600 aircraft this year, having had 103 net orders in January. Boeing’s commercial backlog stood at about 6,770 aircraft as at January 2026 end.

Embraer had delivered 78 jets in 2025, still short of the units it shipped before covid, with a plan to increase commercial aircraft deliveries by 30% over the next two years as part of efforts to restore production levels that it had before covid. There had been a surge in E2 regional jet orders, with 131 net orders secured in 2025.

Manufacturers were struggling to meet delivery schedule changes that they were not expected to recover from fully until 2031-2032. Delivery delays meant that airlines had to defer expansion timelines and optimize existing capacity while waiting for new airplanes. Uncertainty in delivery timelines, affect airlines’ ability to plan training intake with precision. Type rating was also affected in 2025.

It was a case of airlines worldwide not necessarily being short on passengers but short on airplanes. The growth plans they build on new deliveries had been distorted and some of them had been forced by the situation to lease short term capacity aircraft, even though the main challenge was not a short-term but a supply chain structural problem.

Airframe production had outpaced engine production, resulting in newly completed airframes being parked in anticipation of engines availability. Long-haul fleet renewal was largely impacted by longer timelines for new aircraft certification, possibly lasting for four to five years instead of 24 months.

Converted aircraft from passenger operations to cargo had become short supply as airlines kept them in use for passenger operations on longer periods. Older cargo aircraft were kept flying longer to compensate for slow fleet renewal even though they would eventually reach hard limits on their useful life.

Shortly before the US-Iran war broke out in March, some airlines were operating older, less efficient aircraft, implying higher fuel costs, apart from making higher maintenance expenses.

According to International Air Transport Association (IATA), “a war like this one has a direct negative effect on one of airlines’ biggest costs—oil. In IATA’s December forecast, a significant contributing factor to the assumption of profitability was that fuel costs were expected to decline slightly and the consensus forecast was for Brent crude oil prices to decline to $62/barrel from $70/barrel in 2025. In early March, Brent crude jumped to well north of $100/barrel.”

“Many airlines no longer hedge, which is essentially an insurance or a bet. Airlines and insurers agree on a locked-in price for jet fuel. After years of hedging being an established strategy of most airlines, the tide turned when several of them saw the price of hedging premiums outweighing the benefits. Airlines decided instead to ride with the market, but those that are not hedged are exposed by this war’s effects on oil costs and there’s no sure way to know when or if prices will go down. Exacerbating the effect of higher oil prices on airlines is that many of them still do not have or cannot operate the new, more fuel-efficient aircraft they expected to have by now and which have been affected by the supply chain crisis and engine technology issues,” stated IATA.

Airlines across the Middle East and Asia are reportedly putting aircraft purchase discussions and leasing contracts on hold. Big airlines in Asia are reviewing timelines for large jet purchases and some carriers are considering pausing deliveries due to the sharp spike in jet-fuel prices triggered by the Iran conflict.

The conflict has reversed what had been a period of surging demand for new planes, with both Airbus and Boeing previously struggling to keep pace with orders until February 2026. Plane makers and aircraft leasing firms are concerned that some customers may push back deals

Some of the airlines are also considering pausing deliveries. Because getting out of delivery contracts is difficult, deferrals are one tool that airlines consider to spread out the financial burden of expanding their fleet. Normally, carriers would need to pay penalties for delaying when they take aircraft. In this case, they might declare force majeure, a clause that allows them to halt contracted deliveries without facing a fine.

Boeing is exposed to the Middle East with its widebody order book with almost half of the orders for the upcoming 777X jet and a third of the 787 Dreamliner purchases from carriers in the region. About 14% of Boeing’s backlog is from Middle Eastern airlines, according to Jefferies’ analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.

In the first week of the crisis, carriers in the region tried to move more of their planes out of harm’s way, or keep them parked in far-flung airports because apart from concerns of physical damage, any aircraft parked in a country that has been targeted will have to pay a war premium on the insurance for the asset.

The IATA projection of $41 billion this year, with an estimated 5.2 billion passengers taking to the skies in 2026 is very likely to be altered by the Iran-US war.

Amidst the gulf crisis shocks, airlines may just focus on their networks and safety of their people and assets while seeking ways out of the fuel price surge. Iran war is also demonstrating that airlines and airports everywhere should have crisis management plans in place that can be activated rapidly in crisis times. AM